{"id":222107,"date":"2025-01-10T17:00:26","date_gmt":"2025-01-10T15:00:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/psnews.ro\/?p=222107"},"modified":"2025-01-10T17:00:26","modified_gmt":"2025-01-10T15:00:26","slug":"radu-carp-despre-migratia-voturilor-la-prezidentiale-lupta-este-foarte-stransa-iar-nehotaratii-vor-face-diferenta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/psnews.ro\/radu-carp-despre-migratia-voturilor-la-prezidentiale-lupta-este-foarte-stransa-iar-nehotaratii-vor-face-diferenta\/","title":{"rendered":"Radu Carp, despre migra\u021bia voturilor la preziden\u021biale: Lupta este foarte str\u00e2ns\u0103 iar nehot\u0103r\u00e2\u021bii vor face diferen\u021ba"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Sociologul Radu Carp comenteaz\u0103 analiza lui Mircea Com\u0219a cu privire la migra\u021bia votului<\/a> la alegerile preziden\u021biale din 2024, afirm\u00e2nd c\u0103 marile narative electorale servite p\u00e2n\u0103 acum rom\u00e2nilor sunt contrazise de noile date ie\u0219ite la lumin\u0103.<\/strong><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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„Avem doua mari narative post-electorale. In urma acestei analize, desi autorul nu continua cu rationamentul in acest sens, ambele narative sunt contrazise.<\/div>\n
Primul narativ: „PSD a dat voturi lui George Simion”. <\/strong>Din analiza datelor rezulta ca 7% din votantii PSD au dat voturi lui Simion, iar 6% lui Georgescu.<\/div>\n
Al doilea narativ: „PNL a dat voturi lui Georgescu”. <\/strong>Din analiza datelor rezulta ca, din cei care au votat cu PNL, au votat cu doamna Lasconi 12%, iar cu domnul Georgescu 4,4% (am facut acest calcul, nu imi dau seama din ce motiv Mircea Comsa nu l-a prezentat). Rezulta ca, dintre votantii PNL, de aproape 3 ori mai mult au votat cu Lasconi decat cu Georgescu. Rezulta deasemenea ca votantii PSD au votat mai mult cu Georgescu decat au votat cu Georgescu votantii PNL.”, a subliniat Mircea Carp.<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n
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Sociologul mai puncteaz\u0103 c\u0103 „transferul de voturi nu s-a facut pentru ca asa a dorit partidul respectiv sau firme de consultanta, ci a fost dat de neconcordanta intre profilul candidatului unui partid si cel al alegatorului acelui partid<\/strong>.”<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Daca analizam „zestrea” de voturi a candidatului Georgescu, observam ca marea majoritate a voturilor au venit din partea celor care au votat POT, SOS sau AUR. Votantii AUR nu l-au votat, in marea lor majoritate, pe Simion, ci pe Georgescu.<\/strong><\/div>\n
Rezulta ca, daca alegerile se repeta, candidatul „suveranist” va lua cat au luat partidele „suveraniste” – 35%, la care se adauga intre 5% si 10% din electoratul PNL, PSD, USR.<\/div>\n
Pentru a castiga alegerile in turul doi, candidatul „suveranist” nu va avea nevoie decat de 5 – 10% din cei nehotarati.<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Radu Carp concluzioneaz\u0103 c\u0103 este posibil ca bazinul nehot\u0103r\u00e2\u021bilor s\u0103 decid\u0103 soarta alegerilor preziden\u021biale din mai, dar la o diferen\u021b\u0103 foarte mic\u0103, ceea ce va duce la un nou val de nemul\u021bumiri sociale:<\/div>\n
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„Directionarea voturilor nu a fost intr-un singur sens, ci si in sens opus (de la votantii AUR, POT si SOS la candidatii PNL, PSD, USR). Aceasta inseamna ca in turul doi candidatul „pro-european” va avea nevoie tot de 5% – 10% din bazinul celor nehotarati. Ce se intampla daca in turul doi ambii candidati isi vor imparti voturile nehotaratilor in mod egal?<\/strong> Va aparea o situatie foarte interesanta: alegerile vor fi decise la cateva mii de voturi. In acest caz, va incepe sarabanda contestarilor in justitie. Ce vedem acum este doar o repetitie pentru ce vom vedea incepand cu luna mai: contestari nesfarsite CAB.CCR\/CEDO.”<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Sociologul Radu Carp comenteaz\u0103 analiza lui Mircea Com\u0219a cu privire la migra\u021bia votului la alegerile preziden\u021biale din 2024, afirm\u00e2nd c\u0103 marile narative electorale servite p\u00e2n\u0103 acum rom\u00e2nilor sunt contrazise de noile date ie\u0219ite la lumin\u0103. „Avem doua mari narative post-electorale. In urma acestei analize, desi autorul nu continua cu rationamentul in acest sens, ambele narative […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":222248,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[220,58746,6099,2747,98,86,87],"ppma_author":[57082],"class_list":["post-222107","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-alegeri","tag-aur","tag-calin-gerogescu","tag-crin-antonescu","tag-elena-lasconi","tag-george-simion","tag-pnl","tag-psd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRadu Carp, despre migra\u021bia voturilor la preziden\u021biale: Lupta este foarte str\u00e2ns\u0103 iar nehot\u0103r\u00e2\u021bii vor face diferen\u021ba - PS News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Radu Carp, despre migra\u021bia voturilor la preziden\u021biale: Lupta este foarte 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Absolvent\u0103 a Facult\u0103\u021bii de Jurnalism \u0219i \u0218tiin\u021bele Comunic\u0103rii din cadrul Universit\u0103\u021bii Bucure\u0219ti, a debutat pe clasicul print, iar apoi a f\u0103cut pasul spre online. \"A scrie pentru mine e sinonim cu a fi. M\u0103 bucur s\u0103 \u00eemi s\u0103 \u00eemi continui aventura jurnalistic\u0103 \u00eentr-un mod c\u00e2t mai eficient, p\u00e2n\u0103 nu preiau robo\u021bii tot business-ul. :)\"","url":"https:\/\/psnews.ro\/author\/dana-musceleanu\/"}]}},"authors":[{"term_id":57082,"user_id":40,"is_guest":0,"slug":"dana-musceleanu","display_name":"Dana Musceleanu","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/psnews.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/dana.jpg","url2x":"https:\/\/psnews.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/dana.jpg"},"user_url":"","last_name":"Musceleanu","last_name_2":"","first_name":"Dana","job_title":"","description":"Cu o experien\u021b\u0103 de peste 20 ani \u00een pres\u0103, Dana Musceleanu vine \u00een redac\u021bia PS News dup\u0103 aproape 4 ani ca editor coordonator la site-ul Antena 3 \u0219i alti 3,5 ani ca senior editor la site-ul B1 TV. \r\nAbsolvent\u0103 a Facult\u0103\u021bii de Jurnalism \u0219i \u0218tiin\u021bele Comunic\u0103rii din cadrul Universit\u0103\u021bii Bucure\u0219ti, a debutat pe clasicul print, iar apoi a f\u0103cut pasul spre online. \r\n\"A scrie pentru mine e sinonim cu a fi. M\u0103 bucur s\u0103 \u00eemi s\u0103 \u00eemi continui aventura jurnalistic\u0103 \u00eentr-un mod c\u00e2t mai eficient, p\u00e2n\u0103 nu preiau robo\u021bii tot business-ul. :)\""}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/psnews.ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/222107","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/psnews.ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/psnews.ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/psnews.ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/40"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/psnews.ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=222107"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/psnews.ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/222107\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":222249,"href":"https:\/\/psnews.ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/222107\/revisions\/222249"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/psnews.ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/222248"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/psnews.ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=222107"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/psnews.ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=222107"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/psnews.ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=222107"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/psnews.ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=222107"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}