Ciprian Ciucu, prim-vicepre\u015fedinte PNL \u015fi primar al Sectorului 6, a postat pe Facebook o analiz\u0103 privind votul pentru pre\u0219edin\u021bie.<\/p>\n
Subliniind c\u0103 nu \u00ee\u0219i face iluzii c\u0103 va aduce un dram de ra\u021biune \u00een comportamentul de vot, edilul a prezentat \u00eens\u0103 scenariile \u00een care alegerile ar fi c\u00e2\u0219tigate de liderul AUR, George Simion, actualul primar al Capitalei, Nicu\u0219or Dan, candidatul coali\u021biei, Crin Antonescu, lidera USR, Elena Lasconi, sau fostul premier Victor Ponta.<\/p>\n
\u201e\u00cencotro ne \u00eendrept\u0103m? Spre anticipate? Spre o perioad\u0103 lung\u0103 de instabilitate? Spre o revenire lent\u0103?PSD \u2013 22%, AUR – 18%, PNL – 14%, USR – 12%, SOS – 7%, POT – 6%, UDMR \u2013 6%. \u00centr-o lume a incertitudinii, eu m\u0103 ghidez dup\u0103 un principiu simplu: cel mai bun predictor pentru comportamentul din viitor al oamenilor este comportamentul din trecut. \u00cen acest moment, toate sondajele sunt ap\u0103 de ploaie, sunt publicate pentru a manipula\u201d, \u0219i-a \u00eenceput postarea Ciprian Ciucu.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
Liderul PNL continu\u0103 spun\u00e2nd c\u0103, \u201ddin p\u0103cate\u201d, votul pe care-l d\u0103m nu este unul ra\u021bional, ci \u201dprofund emo\u021bional \u0219i identitar.\u201d<\/p>\n
Predic\u021biile f\u0103cute de Ciprian Ciucu:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n
George Simion pre\u0219edinte<\/strong><\/p>\n
\u201e\u00cen cazul \u00een care fostul \u0219ef de galerie, G. Simion ajunge pre\u0219edintele \u021b\u0103rii noastre, sunt probabile dou\u0103 scenarii.<\/p>\n
1. Simion for\u021beaz\u0103 declan\u0219area de alegeri anticipate. Majoritatea este la limit\u0103, Guvernul poate fi picat relativ u\u0219or. \u00cen aceast\u0103 ipotez\u0103, majoritatea PNL cu PSD \u00ee\u0219i va fi consumat ra\u021biunea de a fi (exclusiv stabilitatea pe termen mediu). Urmeaz\u0103 alegeri \u00een care se reconfigureaz\u0103 alian\u021be, Parlamentul este oricum pulverizat. Rom\u00e2nia este retrogradat\u0103 pe pie\u021bele financiare interna\u021bionale, urmeaz\u0103 bulgarizarea Rom\u00e2niei. Pe plan extern (principala atributie pe Pre\u0219edintelui) lucrurile o iau razna \u0219i ne pierdem sus\u021binerea european\u0103.<\/p>\n
2. Simion for\u021beaz\u0103 o majoritate \u201csuveranist\u0103\u201d PSD-AUR-POT (cu preluarea la bucat\u0103 unora din SOS \u0219i ceva minorit\u0103\u021bi). Este probabil ca \u0219i UDMR, pe linia suveranistului Orban s\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een acest\u0103 ecua\u021bie. Ponta preia PSD \u0219i \u00eel duce \u00een zona suveranist\u0103 \u0219i poate pretinde pozi\u021bia de premier. Capacitatea de guvernare a unei astfel de coali\u021bii este la genunchiul broa\u0219tei. Efectiv, cu excep\u021bia c\u00e2torva din UDMR \u0219i PSD, restul sunt p\u0103m\u00e2nt de flori. Vor veni cu contra-reforme pentru a se salva pe termen scurt, de genul c\u0103 vor desfiin\u021ba \u0219i seca Pilonul II de pensii.<\/p>\n
Ca efect imediat, cea mai activ\u0103 cohort\u0103, cea de peste 40 de ani, va emigra \u00een mas\u0103, iar recesiunea economic\u0103 va fi inevitabil\u0103. Cei mai s\u0103raci vor suferi \u0219i mai mult \u0219i vor fi \u0219i mai s\u0103raci. Vom fi necredibili pe plan european, vor mar\u0219a pe excep\u021bionalismul rom\u00e2nesc, vor inventa du\u0219mani \u00een stil fascist \u0219i vor juca cartea \u201csuveranit\u0103\u021bii\u201d, deranja\u021bi de Europa civilizat\u0103. Vor propune un ROEXIT ce ar putea fi stopat doar de proteste masive, dar nu va mai avea cine protesta, pentru c\u0103 genera\u021bia mea, cei 40+, nu va mai fi \u00een \u021bar\u0103. Libert\u0103\u021bile civile vor fi limitate, presa este deja acaparat\u0103 de oligarhi-juc\u0103tori. Ace\u0219tia se vor alinia u\u0219or, altfel vor fi s\u0103lta\u021bi\u201d, a scris Ciucu.<\/p>\n
Nicu\u0219or Dan pre\u0219edinte<\/strong><\/p>\n
\u201e1. Blocaj institu\u021bional \u00eentre Pre\u0219edinte \u0219i Guvern. Pre\u0219edintele Dan va \u00eencerca s\u0103 capitalizeze \u0219i mai mult politic, va propune chestii f\u0103r\u0103 s\u0103 discute \u00een prealabil, f\u0103r\u0103 s\u0103 negocieze. Va decreta, va \u021bine conferin\u021be de pres\u0103. Nu va reu\u0219i s\u0103 duc\u0103 la bun sf\u00e2r\u0219it nicio reform\u0103, cum nu a ini\u021biat nicio reforma la nivelul Bucure\u0219tiului. Nu va reu\u0219i s\u0103 aduc\u0103 USR la guvernare, iar clivajul va fi \u00eentre Pre\u0219edinte \u0219i Guvern, ceea ce pe termen lung echivaleaz\u0103 cu cre\u0219terea partidelor extremiste, anti-europene. Va fi izolat, nu va avea majoritatea parlamentar\u0103 \u0219i Guvernul de partea lui. Politica extern\u0103 va fi corect\u0103, dar extrem de modest\u0103. Nu apar\u021bine niciunei familii politice, nu este perceput defel pe plan european.<\/p>\n
2. Dan propune crearea unei majorit\u0103\u021bi \u00een jurul PNL \u0219i USR prin atragerea UDMR \u0219i a proeuropenilor din PSD. Majoritarea va fi foarte instabil\u0103 iar N. Dan nu va fi un factor determinant. El \u201cdiscut\u0103\u201d cu majorit\u0103\u021bi, d\u0103 teme \u0219i decrete, nu formeaz\u0103 majorit\u0103\u021bi (experien\u021b\u0103 din Consiliul General). Nu l-am v\u0103zut la negocieri, \u00eencerc\u00e2nd s\u0103 se pozi\u021bioneze \u0219i s\u0103 fie juc\u0103tor activ. Un astfel de guvern va fi greu de setat \u0219i va fi pur \u0219i simplu bombardat din toate p\u0103r\u021bile. Posibil s\u0103 ini\u021bieze reforme \u0219i va fi demis \u00een Parlament dup\u0103 ce va lua deciziile corecte, dar impopulare, Bolojan style.<\/p>\n
3. PSD iese de la Guvernare \u0219i \u201csus\u021bine\u201d un guvern interimar PNL-USR. Un guvern reformist, dar \u0219antajabil, care nu poate garanta nimic pe termen lung care va fi \u00eenvinov\u0103\u021bit de tot ce e posibil\u201d, a mai scris Ciucu.<\/p>\n
Crin Antonescu pre\u0219edinte<\/strong><\/p>\n
\u201eScenariul \u201cNemuritorul\u201d, guvernul Marcel Ciolacu III. Crin Antonescu, \u00een calitate de Pre\u0219edinte, men\u021bine actuala formul\u0103 de guvernare. Coali\u021bia face reformele asumate, pe un calendar clar, \u0219i PNL r\u0103m\u00e2ne \u00een Guvern. Deficitul bugetar este sc\u0103zut treptat, banii europeni sunt \u00een continuare atra\u0219i \u0219i alimenteaz\u0103 economia. Crin Antonescu \u00een\u021belege rolul de mediator, \u00eenva\u021b\u0103 din gre\u0219elile lui K. Iohannis, nu face excese, nu \u00ee\u0219i mai creeaz\u0103 un partid preziden\u021bial aservit pe care sa-l domine prin amenin\u021barea institu\u021biilor de for\u021b\u0103. Se pondereaz\u0103 pe interna\u021bional \u0219i devine un interlocutor legitim \u0219i pentru Popularii Europeni (mai ales pentru ei), dar \u0219i pentru sociali\u0219tii europeni. Ne \u021bine pe linia de plutire.<\/p>\n
Scenariul \u201cDie hard\u201d, guvernul Marcel Ciolacu III. Coali\u021bia face reformele asumate, PNL asigur\u0103 sprijin parlamentar unui guvern PSD-UDMR \u00een timp ce se reformeaz\u0103 \u0219i se reinventeaz\u0103 departe de mirajul puterii, ca partid alternativ\u0103 la alegerile urm\u0103toare: pro-european, democratic \u0219i \u00eencearc\u0103 s\u0103 se reprofesionalizeze din opozi\u021bie. Reformele nu continu\u0103, Pilonul II de pensii va fi in pericol, ne men\u021binem pe linia de plutire \u0219i, cel mai important, \u00een Europa!<\/p>\n
Scenariul Coali\u021bia PSD \u2013 PNL, \u201creloaded\u201d cu un nou Prim Ministru \u0219i o nou\u0103 garnitur\u0103 de mini\u0219tri. Marcel Ciolacu merge la C. Deputa\u021bilor pe care \u0219i-a p\u0103strat-o, Ilie Bolojan se \u00eentoarce la Senat iar un nou guvern este asumat de coali\u021bie. Succesul noului guvern va depinde de persoana viitorului Premier \u0219i de capacitatea acestuia de a forma un cabinet credibil \u0219i profesionist\u201d, a mai scris prim-vicepre\u0219edintele PNL.<\/p>\n
Ciucu a ad\u0103ugat c\u0103 scenariile \u00een care Victor Ponta ar c\u00e2\u0219tiga alegerile preziden\u021biale sunt identice, cu mici varia\u021biuni, cu scenariile George Simion – pre\u0219edinte, iar cele \u00een care Elena Lasconi ar c\u00e2\u0219tiga sunt asem\u0103n\u0103toare cu scenariile Nicu\u0219or Dan.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ciprian Ciucu, prim-vicepre\u015fedinte PNL \u015fi primar al Sectorului 6, a postat pe Facebook o analiz\u0103 privind votul pentru pre\u0219edin\u021bie. Subliniind c\u0103 nu \u00ee\u0219i face iluzii c\u0103 va aduce un dram de ra\u021biune \u00een comportamentul de vot, edilul a prezentat \u00eens\u0103 scenariile \u00een care alegerile ar fi c\u00e2\u0219tigate de liderul AUR, George Simion, actualul primar al […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":211659,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[62933,60079,1057],"ppma_author":[55],"class_list":["post-242592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politica","tag-alegeri-2025","tag-alegeri-prezidentiale-2025","tag-ciprian-ciucu"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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